US President Donald Trump announced on October 9 that Washington had reached an agreement with Moscow on diesel fuel supplies, temporarily suspending sanctions in exchange. Under the deal, Russia committed to delivering over 300,000 tonnes initially, followed by an additional 500,000 tonnes in November and ultimately 1 million tonnes to US and global markets.
The Russian government responded on October 10 by partially lifting its ban on diesel exports and setting an initial target of 500,000 tonnes for global markets. The US Treasury Department simultaneously granted a licence allowing the sale, delivery, and import of Russian-origin diesel until April 7, 2027.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on October 21 that the first shipment to the United States would be carried by a 40,000-tonne tanker, adding that diesel exports would recover gradually by year-end depending on refinery output. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on October 23 that the first tanker had set sail and that shipments would continue on a regular basis.
Masha Kotkin, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Energy Security and Climate Change Program, told an AA correspondent that the deal was unlikely to have a meaningful impact on global markets. With worldwide diesel demand at roughly 29 million barrels per day, the initial 300,000 metric tonnes — equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels — represents only a fraction of global consumption. "This quantity cannot significantly ease the current supply tightness or push prices lower," Kotkin said, adding that the caveat tying future deliveries to Russian refinery conditions "undermines the credibility of the commitment."
Kotkin highlighted that around one-third of Russia's refinery capacity has been damaged, according to the International Energy Agency, forcing Moscow to maintain a partial export ban on refined petroleum products since January 31. This capacity crunch casts doubt on Russia's ability to meet the volumes pledged under the agreement.
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure pose an additional risk. Kotkin noted that Ukraine has previously attacked Russian oil tankers and LNG carriers in the Black Sea, as well as the St. Petersburg oil export terminal — the very facility through which planned diesel shipments are expected to flow. On the political front, Kotkin observed that Trump's sanctions waiver has drawn bipartisan criticism in Congress and predicted that tensions between the administration and lawmakers over sanctions policy would persist.
